The World Steel Association (WSA) has released the latest edition (2024-2025) of its Steel Demand Forecast Report (SRO). The report shows that global steel demand will fall by a further 0.9% to 1,751 million tons this year. After three consecutive years of decline, global steel demand will rebound by 1.2% to 1,772 million tons in 2025.
Commenting on the results of this forecast, Dr. Martin Theuringer, Chairman of the World Steel Association’s Market Research Committee and Managing Director of the German Iron and Steel Institute, said: “2024 will undoubtedly be a tough year as far as global steel demand is concerned, as the global manufacturing industry continues to face multiple difficulties, such as declining purchasing power of households, significant monetary tightening and heightened geopolitical uncertainty. In addition, continued weakness in housing construction due to financing difficulties and high costs further exacerbates the downturn in steel demand. We have significantly lowered our 2024 steel demand forecasts for most major economies, including China, reflecting continued weakness in manufacturing and lingering global economic headwinds. We expect steel demand in China and most major developed economies to decline significantly in 2024. In contrast, India will remain strong, with its steel demand expected to grow significantly between 2024 and 2025. India has been the strongest driver of steel demand growth since 2021 and this trend is set to continue. We maintain our strong growth forecast for India, with steel demand expected to grow by 8.0% between 2024 and 2025, driven by continued growth in all steel-using sectors, particularly continued strong growth in infrastructure investment.
Steel demand in the world’s other emerging economies, such as the MENA and ASEAN regions, is expected to rebound in 2024, following a sharp slowdown from 2022 to 2023. Steel demand in developed countries is projected to decline by 2.0% in 2024 as steel demand in major steel-using economies, such as the US, Japan, South Korea and Germany, is revised sharply downwards. The impact of inflation, which has persisted for the past three years, has eroded the purchasing power of many low- and middle-income households, further dampening demand for manufactured goods. Despite the challenges at this stage, there is reason to be cautiously optimistic about a potential recovery in global manufacturing in 2025, with steel demand in developed countries expected to grow by 1.9%.
With the ongoing downturn in China’s real estate sector, steel demand in China is forecast to decline by 3.0% in 2024 and further to 1.0% in 2025. We expect the possibility of an upward revision of the 2025 forecast. There is an increasing likelihood of larger scale intervention and support from the Chinese government in the real economy, which will likely boost steel demand in China in 2025. Steel demand in developing countries (excluding China) will grow by 3.5% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025, driven by strong growth in India and a rebound in other major emerging economies.
Steel demand to expand the global power grid could reach about 20 million tons per year, a significant increase from the current rate of 10 million tons per year. This would provide fairly significant support to overall steel demand in major developing economies such as China and India, as well as developed economies such as Europe and North America.The key determinants of global steel demand forecasts between 2025 ~ 2026 will be the steady development of China’s real estate sector, changes in private consumption and business investment, and infrastructure investment in decarbonization and digital transformation of the world’s major economies. The global steel demand forecasts between 2025 and 2026 will be the steady development of China’s real estate sector, changes in private consumption and business investment, and infrastructure investment in decarbonization and digital transformation of the world’s major economies.
